Research Report
Research on the Reform of the University Education System in Response to the Decrease in School-Age Population
Ⅰ. Background and Purpose of Research
▶ Necessity and Purpose of the Study
○The rapid decline in the school-age population poses a serious threat to the very foundation of higher education institutions.
-Continuous decreases in the school-age population (ages 6 to 21) are occurring against the backdrop of various societal changes, such as low birth rates and the progression towards an aging society.
-Statistics Korea forecasts a staggering 1.95 million decrease in the school-age population from 2020 to 2030.
○Although the government is pursuing diverse policies to restructure the higher education system in response to the decline in the school-age population, legislative improvements are required through comprehensive assessment and review of existing policies.
-Current government policies focus on restructuring universities by consolidating or closing academic departments, integrating universities, and reducing enrollment quotas.
-From the 19th to the 21st National Assembly, bills were introduced to support university restructuring and encourage voluntary closure of universities, but all were discarded upon the expiration of the Assembly’s term.
-Current legislative efforts in the 22nd National Assembly include the proposed Act on Supporting the Restructuring of Private Universities (tentative title), designed to facilitate management normalization by restructuring private universities and educational corporations, with discussions currently underway.
-Given this momentum, there is a need to examine legislative measures to establish a legal basis for implementing university restructuring and for disposing of residual properties following private university closures.
○Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the current status and conditions of higher education amid the decline in the school-age population, identify key problems, and propose reform measures for the higher education system in response. Furthermore, it seeks to present legislative and institutional improvement plans to enhance the quality of higher education, overcome the crisis of a shrinking school-age population, and strengthen national competitiveness, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for advancing legislative reform policies.
Ⅱ. Contents
○Survey on the Decline of the School-age Population and Analysis of the Higher Education System
-The trends in the total population and the school-age population were examined to analyze the rate of decline. The total population, which stood at approximately 51.84 million in 2020, is projected to decrease to 50 million by 2034, 49 million by 2041, and to the 30-million range by 2065. The school-age population stands at just 7.14 million in 2024 (13.8% of the total population) and is projected to plummet to 3.77 million (8.9%) by 2060. This contraction of the school-age population has been shown to directly result in a reduced pool of potential university entrants.
-The current status of higher education institutions (universities) by region, including the number of institutions and the number of enrolled students, was examined to analyze regional school-age population patterns. This confirmed a pattern of students gravitating toward the well-developed metropolitan area, resulting in a structural imbalance in which universities outnumber the available student population.
○Identification of Problems Arising from the Decline in the School-age Population
-Based on the current trends in the school-age population and the operational status of higher education institutions, potential problems for the higher education system were reviewed.
-The rapid decrease in the school-age population is expected to inevitably lead to reduced demand for higher education, resulting in downsizing of universities and aggravated financial difficulties.
-Due to the preference for metropolitan-area universities and the rapid decline in the school-age population, regional universities are expected to face consolidation or closure. In addition, there may be a reduction in opportunities for higher education, diminished academic diversity, deterioration in educational quality, a decrease in the economically active or working-age population, and a weakening of national competitiveness.
○ Analysis and Evaluation of Domestic Policies and Legislation
-Various policies have been implemented to address problems in the higher education system caused by the declining school-age population, and relevant legislation has been established for institutional improvement. To achieve more tangible results, this study analyzed and reviewed current relevant policies and legislation, with evaluations limited to areas where data on policy implementation periods and outcomes were available.
-First, to present the appropriate direction for current university restructuring efforts, the necessity and direction of policies were examined, and relevant systems and policies were analyzed. Particular attention was given to policies implemented by the previous administration, their content and outcomes, and their implications for the direction of current initiatives.
-Second, although the decline in the school-age population negatively impacts the entire higher education system, its effects are more pronounced for regional universities. Accordingly, this study analyzed and evaluated national and local government measures targeting regional universities, including educational infrastructure reorganization, school consolidation and closures, financial support policies, and initiatives to revitalize local economies and attract population inflows. However, for policies implemented or launched in the current year, only descriptions were provided without evaluation.
-Third, as the decline in the school-age population leads to reduced tuition revenue and thus worsens the overall financial condition of higher education, necessitating a review of financial support systems to address these challenges. This study therefore analyzed and evaluated the current higher education financial support systems.
-Fourth, the proposed Act on Supporting the Restructuring of Private Universities was reviewed. In the 22nd National Assembly, a total of five bills were introduced—three by the ruling party (sponsored by Representatives Kim Dae-sik, Seo Ji-young, and Jeong Seong-guk) and two by the opposition party (sponsored by Representatives Moon Jeong-bok and Kang Kyung-sook)—to resolve the crisis in higher education caused by the financial deterioration of private universities due to the declining school-age population.
○ Analysis of Foreign Policy and Legislative Cases
-Policy and legislative measures implemented in Japan and China, which face similar conditions to Korea, were analyzed to derive practical implications for improving Korea’s institutional framework.
○ Development of Improvement Measures
-First, the need for improving university restructuring systems and policies was confirmed, and measures were proposed to enhance evaluation models that consider the functions and capabilities of universities.
-Regarding the stable securing and strategic allocation of higher education finances, this study proposed permitting tuition increases, redirecting portions of the national education tax and mandatory local education office transfers toward higher and lifelong education, formulating mid- to long-term higher education financing plans, and clarifying the objectives and scope of the Special Account for Higher and Lifelong Education Support.
-In relation to higher education system reform, macro-level directions were presented based on the functions and roles of universities, with reference to the cases of China and Australia.
-As for concrete legal improvement measures, the bills on supporting the restructuring of private universities pending before the National Assembly were compared and reviewed by key issues, and proposals for improvement were provided.
Ⅲ. Expected Effects
○This study diagnoses the crisis facing the higher education system caused by the decline in the school-age population, and through a review of relevant policies and legal frameworks, derives improvement measures expected to produce the following outcomes.
-Provide a foundational data for ensuring that Korea’s higher education policy is implemented in a more realistic and sustainable manner by redefining the direction and structure of higher education in response to the structural challenge of a shrinking school-age population.
-Present measures to protect the ecosystem of regional higher education through institutional support aimed at preventing the decline of regional universities, thereby contributing to the revitalization of local economies.
-Propose legislative improvement directions and amendment measures for the provisions of the bill on supporting the restructuring of private universities.